Summer Break already? It’s time mid season driver rankings! Let’s see how the drivers have been holding up according to the Mathematical Model. For anyone new, the model looks at the results of teammate matchups for every F1 driver to assess how strong each driver is. Here we’re using the model to create mid season mathematical driver rankings for the 2024 F1 drivers.
Pre-Season Predictions
For each driver line-up, the model predicted the % of points each driver would score at the start of the season. Let’s check up on these predictions and see how they’re holding up.
Top Teams
For Mercedes and Ferrari the battles were considered likely to be close, and this has (this far) proved to be the case. This is especially true given that Russell has had a mechanical DNF and a DSQ that he was blameless for, whereas Hamilton has so far suffered just one DNF.
For all teams the graphs only show championship points, but for Ferrari there’s a major caveat that Sainz missed. Only including races at which both drivers started actually puts Sainz ahead of Leclerc (by a single point). Another way of interpreting the data is to work out the average score per race. At his method would give Leclerc a lead over Sainz of around 2 points. (This method is basically how the model itself interprets results, although it also takes DNFs into account.)
At Red Bull and McLaren the gap to the second driver was predicted to be more notable. In the case of Red Bull, Verstappen has dominated Pérez more than expected, whilst at McLaren Piastri is a little closer to Norris than predicted.
Midfield Teams
It is much harder to make accurate percentage predictions for midfield teams. This is mostly due to the fact that a few points can make a big difference in the % result. However, of the 5 midfield teams that have scored points, the model has so far predicted the correct lead driver 4 times. In addition, in Aston Martin and Alpine’s case the predictions have thus far been a near perfect reflection of results. (This is as least part luck, particularly for Alpine where just 11 points have been scored in total.)
The obvious outlier is at Racing Bulls, where Tsunoda has thus far outscored Ricciardo. This possibility was discussed preseason when the model’s prediction was made. In total, the model has so far predicted either 7/9 or 8/9 of the lead drivers correctly (depending on how you interpret Ferrari). Of course in theory the results will be even better at the end of the reason when outlying races have less of an effect, but we’ll have to wait and see if that’s actually the case.
Anyway, let’s move on to the rankings of our 20 permanent drivers (although I’ve also added Bearman for reference). The scores relate to the model’s predictions for the percentage of points they would score in a championship winning car compared to a typical performance from Hamilton. (You can read more about this here.) The tiers are relatively arbitrary, but give an idea of which drivers are close together.
C Tier
20) Logan Sargeant, 59%
As in 2023, Sargeant has been rated the worst ranked driver for most of the season. However, he’s shown steady but consistent improvement across his time in F1. This year he’s also suffered from setbacks within his own team. Most notably, he has often not been given an equal car with Albon, due to the lack of new parts. In addition, Sargeant had to totally sit out the race in Australia, despite the fact that issue was caused by his teammate crashing.
This situation has created tensions within the team. To be fair to Sargeant, his deficit to Albon has narrowed his cars got equal upgrades, meaning the model may be underrating his performance a little. However, he remains pointless across the season, is 13-0 down in qualifying and is yet to match his teammate across a weekend, let alone beat him. Given this, 2024 is likely to be his final season in F1, although his performances have generally been quite respectable.
19) Kevin Magnussen, 61%
As he was last year, Magnussen has generally been outclassed by teammate Hülkenberg. Just 2 points finishes compares poorly to Hülkenberg’s 5 (+ a sprint race). As previously, the most obvious cause of his deficit is in qualifying.
Magnussen received the most attention this season for his defensive driving in the name of assisting his teammate. His pushing of boundaries earnt both praise and criticism, but did little to help him retain his drive for next year.
18) Sergio Pérez, 62%
Pérez’s 2024 season has followed the trend of previous years. The first six races featured 4 podiums with a further 2 sprint podiums; exactly the kind of results Red Bull expect. However, since Miami his form dived. The fact that this has coincided with a general drop off in Red Bull’s pace and an incredibly tight fight at the top has left Pérez scrabbling at the lower end of the points. As ith Magnussen, his biggest issue has been qualifying, with 4 Q1 exits in a 6 race period being particularly painful. However, his race recoveries have also been weaker than in previous years. (His strong race recovers have previously made him a Driver Of The Day favourite.)
In recent races there have been signs of Pérez being more comfortable in the car, but this is yet to translate into a notable improvement in results. If Red Bull were to replace Pérez at some point this year you would have to say it’s not a major surprise given the data available. Despite this, his rating is likely to recover somewhat across the rest of the season. This is very much a back-handed compliment though, given there is little scope for it to fall further.
B- Tier
17) Valterri Bottas, 65%
Bottas is one of just 3 drivers (full time) drive who’ve yet to score. In the early season the car had the pace for points, but Bottas had no luck when it mattered. In Bahrain he was an innocent victim of a turn 1 spin, and he lost chunks of time to the team’s pit stop issues at other races.
All this means his current race results are slightly inferior to teammate Zhou’s, despite a commanding 13-1 lead in qualifying head-to-head. Since his early season woes his rating has been gradually recovering, but the lack of a competitive car is hampering his progress. Nevertheless, on current form it would be a surprise for him to be ranked behind Zhou come the season’s end.
16) Zhou Guanyu, 68%
Whilst Zhou has trailed his teammate in qualifying, it has often been by fine margins. Indeed, Zhou’s having his best season in F1 so far, and it’s clear he has developed as a driver since he was flattened by Bottas in 2022. Despite this, he seems unlikely to retain his drive next year. An 11th place at the season opener and an emotional home Grand Prix have been the season highlights.
15) Lance Stroll, 71%
Like Zhou, Stroll is enjoying his strongest season in the sport. Whilst Stroll didn’t quite make the most of the early season when the car was clear of the other midfield runners, his results since then have been fairly representative of the car at his disposal. As such his rating has been gradually improving as the season progresses.
Indeed, in the last 8 Grand Prix he has 4 points finishes: One more than teammate Alonso. Of course this includes the Hungarian Grand Prix where Stroll refused a team order to let Alonso through (having been let through by Alonso earlier.) However, it does show some real progress from the Canadian.
N/A) Oliver Bearman, 71%
The British driver had praise heaped upon him (and deservedly so) from his mature 7th place finish aim the Saudi Grand Prix. As he only completed in 1 Grand Prix, I haven’t included Bearman in the official rankings. However, an unofficial ranking of 15th (out of 21) is impressive for a total rookie.
You may wonder why is he ranked so low if his debut was so strong. Well, ultimately the model only considered results, and the truth is that 7th place is not an overly impressive result for a Ferrari car.
Note that the model does account for his rookie status in other ways. For example, predictions on future performances would account for his lack of experience and predict further development. Regardless, one race is not really sufficient to give a definitive rating. Finally, the adjusting of his rating over time is due to the model trying to gauge how strong the Ferrari car is as a whole.
B Tier
14) Alex Albon, 77%
So far Albon has scored all of Williams’ points this year. It’s therefore no surprise that he’s easily outperformed his teammate, particularly in qualifying. (Albon has made Q3 3 times, the same number of times that Sargeant has escaped Q1.) However, as noted before, the gap between the two has narrowed from last year when the cars have been equal. Albon delivered some exceptional weekends in Monaco, Canada and Britain. These weekends gave him two 9th places (and an unfortunate DNF) that have so far made up his season highlights.
The main negative was his crash in Australia, which was costly given the team’s circumstances. The fact that it was Sargeant that paid the price was clearly unfair, but Albon has earnt the right to be the lead driver given their comparative results both before and since then.
13) Daniel Ricciardo, 79%
Ricciardo struggled significantly in the first few races, and was even the lowest rated driver for a while. A strong point finish in Canada heralded a significant improvement in form. Whilst his results are still lacking in consistency, the nature of the midfield mean that small details (often out of his control) have had a large effect.
Oddly, feedback from Red Bull has veered from an imminent promotion to the A-team to losing his seat altogether. Whilst this is partly due to a lack of consistently great drives on Ricciardo’s part, it’s mostly due to things outside of Ricciardo’s control. (Pérez’s struggles, Red Bull’s failure to find a replacement it has total confidence in and the public power struggle within the team).
Ultimately Ricciardo’s peaks have been encouraging, but so far there’s still little evidence he’s at the level that was typical of him 5 years ago.
12) Nico Hülkenberg, 82%
Hülkenberg has continued to show to qualifying prowess this year, making it through to Q3 6 times (to Magnussen’s 0). The Haas has shown better race pace than last year too, allowing the Hulk to rack up some useful points finishes. Hülkenberg’s ratings have also remained remarkably consistent throughout the year. A drive at Audi is surely a better long-term bet than at Haas, and a deserved reward for his raw pace over the past years.
B+ Tier
11) George Russell, 88%
Russell has shown remarkable speed at times, regardless of the competitiveness of the car. This is evidenced by his 10-4 lead on Hamilton in qualifying. (Although typically by the gap between them is fine.) At Austria he ran a superb 3rd before inheriting the lead when Norris and Verstappen collided. However, at other times his luck deserted him. At Australia his last lap crash was deemed to be caused by Alonso ahead. Meanwhile, fights for victories at Silverstone and Belgium came to nothing due to a water leak and being underweight respectively.
Before his DSQ at Spa he was rated just below Hamilton, and you can see from the graph below that the result caused his rating to dip. This is despite the model correcting for the disqualification not being his fault. Given this, Russell’s rating is probably a little underrated at this point. On the other hand, his early season edge over Hamilton has evaporated in recent races, leaving no guarantee that his rating will subsequently improve.
10) Yuki Tsunoda, 89%
Tsunoda’s early season form was strong, with the exception of a poor Chinese Grand Prix. Whilst Red Bull appear to have little interest in a promotion, the sister team secured his services for 2025 and were full of praise of his performances. Since then the intra-team battle has intensified, but Tsunoda still leads Ricciardo in the championship and by most other metrics. This has defied the model’s expectations, placing him in the top 10 drivers of a season for the first time.
9) Esteban Ocon, 90%
It’s hard to judge the Alpine pair given their disastrous season (particularly early on), but Ocon has still delivered some strong drives behind the scenes. Performances in Australia and China went unrewarded, but he subsequently scored in 4 times. The highlight was a great drive in Spa giving him a season’s best finish of 9th.
Having said that, not everything has been smooth, and not every problem can be blamed on the car. Ocon’s overly ambitious attempt at overtaking teammate Gasly ended in a DNF with a grid penalty to boot. It also further strained the relationship with Alpine given it was one of few races where a double points finish looked possible for the team. Ocon is also behind Gasly in the championship despite, significantly better reliability. However, the model still sees his performances as very respectable, and it’s unlikely the loss of his Alpine drive was based purely on performance.
8) Fernando Alonso, 91%
At the season opener Alonso was barely a tenth of a second off a front row start, which seems remarkable given how his season has progressed. In fact the first few races were full of strong points finishes. His strongest performance was in Japan, where he extracted the maximum from the car on route to 5th place. Since then his results have generally been less impressive as the car became less competitive. After 6 Grand Prix Alonso was 24 points clear of Stroll. A further 8 Grand Prix later it’s increased by just a single point. This does include a slight boost for Stroll for ignoring team orders in Hungary, but the general trend is inescapable. His rating has naturally tended downwards during this period.
It’s clear that Alonso hasn’t lost the drive to fight this year though, as controversial penalties in China and Austria demonstrated. Whether he can rediscover his early season form remains to be seen.
A Tier
7) Pierre Gasly, 98%
Gasly hasn’t exactly made headlines this season, with a horribly uncompetitive car at his disposal. He’s suffered some disastrous weekends, and has qualified dead last 3 times (only Zhou has more). Despite this, he’s been able to deliver some genuine gems in the dirt. Four points finishes in a row (including a brilliant drive in Spain) have put him ahead of Ocon in the standings, and the model’s ratings. Given their uncompetitive start to the year, the Alpine pair’s ratings are more susceptible to change than most.
Ultimately, Gasly’s most important fight this season has been internal. His somewhat fractious partnership with Ocon is due to expire at the end of the season, with Gasly as the new team leader. (Of course being team leader of Alpine is a somewhat mixed blessing if the past is any indicator of the future.)
6) Lewis Hamilton, 99%
A podium in the Chinese Sprint Race aside, Hamilton’s early season form was respectable but not overly impressive. After initially being outscored by Russell, Hamilton subsequently found form, and his season has been going from strength to strength as the car has become more competitive.
Hamilton’s easily outscored the rest of the field in the last 3 races, which included two wins. Both were fantastically executed opportunistic drives that show why he has had so much success over the years. His rating has naturally improved from a modest starting point.
5) Oscar Piastri, 99%
Like Hamilton, Piastri’s form has gone from strength-to-strength. Initially it was Norris that generally stole the limelight in the early season, even after the McLaren car improved. By the time Piastri took his first podium of the season in Monaco, Norris already had four, including a win.
However, since then Piastri has been on it. At Hungary he was flawless, taking a deserved maiden win. (Even if McLaren and Norris made it far more complicated than it needed to be.) There’s also been an improvement in the tyre issues he occasionally struggled with last year. For now, Norris has still been the stronger driver for most of the season, but Piastri has been incredibly impressive and has continued to develop as a driver.
S Tier
4) Carlos Sainz, 113%
It is obvious why Sainz had so many teams interested in signing him for 2025: he’s a fantastic driver. His win in Australia was sublime, despite missing the previous race and still recovering from appendicitis. There have been several other points where he’s looked like the stronger Ferrari driver, most notably when the car isn’t quite at its peak. Sainz’s worst race came in Canada, but he was able to quickly shrug it off at the next race. (This can be seen from the notable dip and recovery in his ratings graph below.) Once again he’s been able to effectively score points despite not having quite had the raw pace of Leclerc. He currently stands ahead of both Mercedes drivers and Pérez in the standings, and just a whisker below Leclerc, despite missing a race.
3) Lando Norris, 113%
Whilst there’s a definite sense that McLaren should have achieved more this season, how much of the blame lays at Norris’ feet is up for debate. Norris is certainly enjoying a strong season overall, with no genuinely poor races no far. He finally won his first race in Miami, and he recorded five top 2 finishes in six Grand Prix between China and Spain. Bar Verstappen, no other driver has achieved close to this consistency. He’s also one of just two drivers to have scored in all but one race. (The exception is Austria, where Verstappen was ultimately punished for their collision.)
Norris was also a strong pair of hands in the early season (when McLaren was significantly less competitive). This anllowed him to establish a healthy points lead over teammate Piastri. His rating has started to dip recently as Piastri impressed before the summer break, and it will be interesting to see if Norris can reassert himself in the second half of the season.
2) Charles Leclerc, 120%
Across the first 8 Grand Prix of the year Leclerc was sublime. He finished in the top 4 at every opportunity, with the only negative was being beaten by his teammate to victory in Australia. The obvious highlight was Monaco, where he finally shrugged off his “Monaco curse” with a dominant win from pole. Post Monaco he endured a disappointing run, but has since returned to form with some top drives in Hungary and Spa. Leclerc has once again been especially impressive in qualifying. On average he’s been the 3rd fastest qualifier this year, despite probably having the 3rd fastest car overall.
1) Max Verstappen, 137%
Whilst Verstappen and Red Bull have looked considerably more vulnerable as the season has progressed, he still dominated the first half of the year. Including Sprint Races he has 10 wins so far; more than the rest of the grid combined. And other than his (blameless) DNF in Australia, he’s outscored teammate Pérez at every round.
Whilst the Red Bull was clearly the fastest car in the early rounds, Verstappen has since faced threats from Ferrari, McLaren or Mercedes at almost every race. More than once he was still able to come out on top due to a clean run whilst others fumbled.
However, he hasn’t been perfect this year, and got involved in unnecessary collisions with rivals at Austria and Hungary. Despite this, he’s been the highest rated driver for the entire season so far, and there is little scope for another driver to overhaul his advantage bar an absolute collapse in form. His championship lead has also been preserved despite just one podium in the past 4 Grand Prix.
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