Here are the driver rankings for the 2024 F1 season. As usual, the results are generated by the mathematical model. The model assesses how impressive a driver’s results are, given the strength of their teammate(s). This means that a ranking of drivers can take place regardless of how strong their car was.
- 2024 F1 Pre-Season Predictions
- Most One-Sided Match Ups
- E Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
- D Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
- C Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
- B Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
- A Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
- S Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
- Summary of Results
2024 F1 Pre-Season Predictions
We’ll start by comparing the model’s predictions for the 2024 driver line-ups compared to the actual results. Percentages are for the % of points scored in all 2024 races where both teammates were present.
McLaren
Whilst Piastri had some very strong races, Norris continued to be the lead McLaren driver. The gap between the pair narrowed as expected, mostly due to Piastri’s increased experience this season.
Ferrari
Leclerc again maintained a narrow but decisive edge over Sainz. The model predicted the results to within 1 percentage point, although the results between the Ferrari drivers have been remarkably consistent over the years.
Red Bull
Verstappen’s domination over Pérez was just as convincing as it was in 2023. The model’s concluded that most of the % change is due to the Red Bull car being less strong this season. (A lead driver is more likely to score a higher % of a teams points in a weaker car.)
Mercedes
For the 3rd season in a row, the model predicted the wrong Mercedes’ driver to lead the standings. However, the final points tally between the pair was again quite close.
Aston Martin
The points distribution for Alonso and Stroll is identical to last year. However, the reduction in competitiveness of the Aston Martin car should have lead to a larger percentage points difference. As such, the model considers this to be a slightly disappointing year for Alonso.
Alpine
Gasly firming established himself as team leader at Alpine. His slightly higher than expected percentage is mostly due to the car being worse than predicted.
Haas
Hülkenberg maintained his edge over Magnussen from 2023, with the German driver doing even better than expectations. Meanwhile Bearman’s two Haas races were impressive, but his average points per race is below that of both the permanent 2024 drivers.
Racings Bulls
At the start of the year, I was a little skeptical of the model’s prediction that Ricciardo would beat Tsunoda. This skepticism turned out to be well founded. Tsunoda ended up outscoring both teammates, by almost identical margins.
Williams
The model correctly predicted that Albon would again flatten Sargeant, even if it thought it was likely to be a little closer this year. Albon also held an edge vs Calopinto overall, but it was much closer between the pair.
Kick Sauber
With just 1 points finish all season, the data on points alone is pretty meaningless. Bottas was the faster driver for most of the year (particularly in qualifying), However, Zhou had the higher race finishes of the pair, for a variety of reasons.
Of the 10 teams, the model predicted the correct winner 7 times. The exceptions were Racing Bulls, Kick Sauber and Mercedes.
Most One-Sided Match Ups
Drivers in top teams are much more likely to score similar points in terms of percentages. (However they’re also likely to have a larger absolute points difference.) As such, it can be hard to see how comparatively close teammate match-ups are just from the graphs above. The model corrects for this factor to determine how conclusively one teammate beat another. They are listed from most dominant to most even below. (With a subjective description to help interpret the results.)
| RESULTS Dominance Level | Team | lead driver | secondary driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely Dominant | Red Bull | Verstappen | Pérez |
| Dominant | Ferrari* | Leclerc | Bearman |
| Alpine* | Gasly | Doohan | |
| Clear Edge | Williams | Albon | Sargeant |
| Aston Martin | Alonso | Stroll | |
| Haas* | Hülkenberg | Bearman | |
| Haas | Hülkenberg | Magnussen | |
| Small Edge | McLaren | Norris | Piastri |
| Alpine | Gasly | Ocon | |
| Racing Bulls | Tsunoda | Ricciardo | |
| Racing Bulls* | Tsunoda | Lawson | |
| Ferrari | Leclerc | Sainz | |
| Kick Sauber | Zhou | Bottas | |
| Too Close to Call | Mercedes | Russell | Hamilton |
| Williams* | Albon | Colapinto |
F1 2024 Driver Rankings
As the criteria for a formal ranking is half a season, I’ve only listed 20 drivers. However, I’ve included provisional rankings for Bearman, Lawson, Colapinto and even Doohan for reference. In each of these cases their ranking should be taken with a pinch of salt, due to the lack of data.
E Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
20) Sergio Pérez
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 54% | 20th | ↓3 (20th) | 20th (47%) |
Pérez started the season with a dominant Red Bull, and was able to deliver reasonable results. After 6 Grand Prix he was 2nd in the championship, with 4 podiums (and a further 2 sprint podiums).
Since then his drop off in form was dramatic, with barely any respite. In the remaining 17 races he scored just 14% of Red Bull’s points. His qualifying form during this time was especially poor, with his median position (10.5th) below Alonso’s (9th), and barely above that of Albon, Hülkenberg and Tsunoda (11th). Perez also had several non-finishes, including a last lap collision in Azerbaijan that spoilt what could have been a good result.
Whilst in previous years we’ve become accustomed to him steaming through the field on Sunday, in 2024 it didn’t happen regularly enough. In his defense the Red Bull could clearly be a tricky car to drive, and Verstappen also struggled at times. Max’s struggles are the main reason for a bump in Perez’s ratings just after half way through the season (see graph below).
By the end of the year his rating is lower than Sargeant’s as well as all the inexperienced rookies. The model thinks that any of the Racing Bulls drivers (Ricciardo, Tsunoda and Lawson) would have made a reasonable replacement, and it is somewhat surprising that Perez managed to last the season given his poor form in two consecutive years.
19) Logan Sargeant
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 57% | 19th | — (19th) | 19th (55%) |
Sargeant was somewhat lucky to retain his seat for 2024, but his 2nd season did not go particularly smoothly. He can rightfully feel a little aggrieved for the fact his car was rarely completely on par with Albon’s. In addition, the ruthless decision to remove him from a Grand Prix due to his teammate’s crash can’t have been easy to swallow.
However, the fact is that he was consistently adrift of his teammate and unable to build on his rookie campaign. The dropping of Sargeant was immediately justified by Colapinto’s relative pace, and it’s hard to make a convincing argument that Sargeant deserved to maintain the seat for the rest of the season.
D Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
18) Valtteri Bottas
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 67% | 18th | ↓4 (14th) | 10th (86%) |
Bottas was generally the faster Sauber driver across the 2024 season, and once again gave some impressive qualifying performances. In fact the model considers him the 10th best qualifier of the year. So why is he down in 18th for race results, behind his teammate?
The main reason is that his finishing positions this year have not been good, even accounting for having the slowest car overall. Bottas’ start of the season was disastrous, and the team suffered from pitstop problems, followed by a car failure in China when he was running well.
For much of the rest of the reason he was gradually catching up to Zhou’s ranking, with some solid but unspectacular results. He probably would have overtaken Zhou’s rating it if not for the last few races. His final race in Abu Dhabi was especially poor, with a fantastic qualifying immediately undone by a poor start before two uncharacteristic crashes. Overall, Bottas is still rated a stronger driver than Zhou by the model, but he was unable to deliver this season.
17) Kevin Magnussen
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 64% | 17th | ↓2 (15th) | 17th (69%) |
Magnussen was as feisty as ever this year. This was particularly true at the start of the season, where he drew the ire of some for his defensive driving in a bid to aid his teammate. His combative nature ultimately lead to a one-race ban (although the model does not punish him for missing a race).
Overall, Magnussen is seen as doing a reasonable job this year, although he was once again outpaced and outscored by teammate Hülkenberg across the season.
N/A) Oliver Bearman
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 65% | N/A (20/24) | N/A | N/A (23/24, 50%) |
Bearman was a revelation on his mid-season Ferrari debut. Almost making it to Q3 and following it up with a solid 7th place finish was indeed impressive given his lack of experience. However, the model sees this performance is respectable, but not particularly impressive. This is because it was just a P7 in a Ferrari, a car which was a strong contender for the constructor’s championship. Bearman’s 2 race stint for Haas was also seen as reasonable, but not beyond what Magnuseen would have been expected to achieve.
His low rating is probably a surprise given how much praise he received this year. However, the rating only comes from how impressive the results are. The model still considered Bearman to be an exciting prospect for the future, however. This is because it accounts for the facts that he was both inexperienced and joining races mid-season when making future predictions.
N/A) Jack Doohan
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 67% | N/A (19/24) | N/A | N/A (19/24, 65%) |
A solid but thoroughly unspectacular single race means there’s not much to say. Doohan was easily outpaced by Gasly, but he kept his nose clean and gained vital experience for the 2025 season. His rating is perhaps slightly higher than expected, due to the fact that he raced the Alpine car when it was at its best.
16) Lance Stroll
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 68% | 16th | ↑2 (18th) | 18th (60%) |
The 10 lowest ranked drivers feature Perez, 5 drivers who do not have a drive for 2024, 3 mid-season replacements and Lance Stroll.
Despite all this, the model rates the 2024 season as Stroll’s best so far. Whilst he rarely had Alonso’s raw pace, he was able to be the leading Aston Martin car on several occasions in the first half of the season. Usually this was due to executing a clean race that maximised his strategy. This included a strong three race run between Austria and Hungary.
However, as the season progressed the pace difference between to Alonso began to show, with Stroll unable to score points in the competitive midfield. He often turned invisible, and his most notable moment in the latter half of the season was a wholly unnecessary beaching of his car in Brazil before the race had even started.
C Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
15) Zhou Guanyu
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 73% | 15th | ↑1 (16th) | 14th (73%) |
Zhou’s recorded the team’s only points finish for the season. However, even discounting this, his average race finish was higher than Bottas’. This is due to a variety of reasons. The team’s early season pitstop woes affected both drivers, but the timing was less detrimental to Zhou. His points finish was also somewhat fortunate due to other drivers having misfortunate.
Zhou was at his best when the car worked well, with his 3 strongest performances of the season (Bahrain, Vegas and Qatar) corresponding to his 3 best results. Whether this was luck or a trait of the driver/car combination is hard to say. Overall Zhou was once again respectable, even though is final rating is a little higher than expected given he was slower than Bottas more often than not.
14) Daniel Ricciardo
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 77% | 14th | ↓5 (9th)* | 15th (73%) |
*Not given an official ranking in 2023 due to only competing in part of the season
Ricciardo spent much of the season in a highly unstable position. He was seriously considered as Pérez‘s replacement over the summer break before being dropped altogether just a few races later.
His Racing Bulls career is seen as competent, and certainly better than Pérez has produced over the same time period. However, it’s ultimately been uninspiring, and he’s failed to establish himself over teammate Tsunoda despite expectations.
Ricciardo definitely showed potential at times, particularly in the middle of the season, but he failed to execute things well consistently. His run of races before being dropped after Singapore were genuinely poor, and no-one can say he wasn’t given a fair opportunity to prove himself.
N/A) Liam Lawson
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 77% | N/A (15/24) | N/A | N/A (13/24, 77%) |
Lawson was given a not-so-subtle opportunity to apply for the Red Bull seat in 2025. A strong opening round in Austin was followed up by some more mixed results. His rating at the ended the season is significantly higher rating than Pérez‘s, and slightly above that of the driver he replaced (Ricciardo). Whilst that’s certainly something to be proud of given the vast experience gap, all 3 of these drivers are ranked below Tsunoda.
13) Nico Hülkenberg
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 79% | 13th | — | 11th (86%) |
With a much more competitive and well-rounded car than last year, Hülkenberg was able to show he’s not just a qualifying specialist. He easily outscored teammate Magnussen again, and a consecutive pair of 6th place finishes at Austria-Britain was the season highlight. Overall his rating stayed remarkably consistent throughout the year, with his ranking is also unchanged from last year.
N/A) Franco Colapinto
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 79% | N/A (13/24) | N/A | N/A (20/24, 61%) |
Like Lawson, Colapinto also managed to outrank the driver he replaced mid-season (Sargeant), but this time rather convincingly so. After a couple of strong opening rounds the model was impressed, but his rating steadily fell throughout the rest of the season. Several large crashes have not helped his reputation, and initial interest from Red Bull and Alpine appears to have cooled. Nevertheless, he is the highest ranked mid-season replacement, and unfortunate not to have a driver secured for 2025 given that he instantly outperformed Sargeant (who was afforded a year-and-a-half in F1).
12) Alex Albon
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 80% | 11th | ↓1 (11th) | 13th (75%) |
Albon continued his domination of Sargeant across the early part of the season. Whilst Colapinto immediately impressed, Albon was able to reassert himself over the remainder of the season. The William’s proved to be a tricky car for all 3 of its drivers, with some some large crashes for Albon (including the controversial one in practice in Australia) causing headaches for the team.
11) Esteban Ocon
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 86% | 11th | ↓2 (11th) | 12th (84%) |
Ocon’s season highlight was of course Brazil, a weekend in which he almost took pole and then raced well to a deserved (if slightly fortunate) 2nd place finish. This results constituted almost 80% of his total points for the season, but there were flashes of speed elsewhere. These included early season heroics in China and Miami, the latter of which gave the team its first points of the season.
The Alpine car became more competitive as the season progressed, but Ocon struggled to keep pace with his teammate over time. The podium in Brazil was very much against the run of form, and Ocon’s relationship with the team ultimately broke down before the end of the season.
B Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
10) Lewis Hamilton
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 92% | 10th | ↓4 (6th) | 16th (69%) |
Hamilton’s final Mercedes season was a mixed bag. At times we saw him at his absolute best, securing a classic wet weather victory at Silverstone, with the following 2 races in Hungary (3rd) and Spa (another victory) giving his driving rating a mid-season boost. We also saw him scythe through the field in late season races at Vegas and Abu Dhabi. But at other times he was unable to answer to Russell’s pace, particularly in qualifying. He is only ranked the 16th best qualifier of the year.
Overall the season is ranked as Hamilton’s worst, and rated (in terms of performance score) as his 2nd worst. The fact that a year sprinkled with disappointing races would still land him in the top 10 is a testament to his standing. He is likely to come back stronger next year, although the challenge of facing Leclerc may be even greater.
9) Fernando Alonso
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 93% | 9th | ↓4 (9th) | 8th (87%) |
Alonso continued to have a large edge over teammate Stroll over the course of the year. His season highlights were also incredibly impressive, even if they tended to lead to results in the lower half of the top ten. Indeed, Alonso suggested his 6th place in Japan was one of his best races ever. However, there were occasions where Stroll seemed much closer than to his pace than expected, and it’s hard to argue that Alonso was truly at his best across the entire season.
8) Yuki Tsunoda
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 93% | 8th | ↑4 (12th) | 9th (87%) |
Tsunoda’s ranking has increased every year in the sport, and this year was surely his best. His early season form was particularly impressive, with 5 points finishes (plus points in a sprint race) in 6 events. Overall Tsunoda outscored both Ricciardo and Lawson in head to head races, and was the more impressive qualifier as well. His wet race in Brazil also turned heads, with only the team strategy and red flag timing preventing a genuine shot at a podium or even a race victory.
7) George Russell
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 97% | 7th | ↑1 (8th) | 3rd (125%) |
Russell’s season had several ups and downs, but he finished it in fantastic form. In qualifying in particular he was a strong, and his final qualifying H2H vs Hamilton was 19-5 in his favour. Russell also secured more poles (4) than anyone bar Verstappen and Norris, which is impressive considering the car was, on average, only 4th fastest.
He also had several brilliant races, including Austria, Brazil and Vegas. However, he wasn’t always the fastest Mercedes driver in race trim, and there were several races at which he didn’t get the points the car was ultimately capable of.
6) Oscar Piastri
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 100% | 6th | ↑1 (7th) | 7th (91%) |
At times Piastri looked like the faster McLaren driver this season, particularly when the car was working well. He also looked more decisive in overtakes, and generally kept a cool head under pressure. But it has to be said that Norris was, once again, the faster and more consistent driver on balance. Whilst Piastri’s work on weaker areas such as tyre management appeared to bear fruit, in areas such as qualifying a general deficit to Norris was still apparent.
Still, this can be considered a successful campaign in which he won his first Grand Prix and helped McLaren win their first constructor’s title in over 25 years.
5) Pierre Gasly
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 104% | 5th | ↑5 (10th) | 6th (99%) |
The Alpine car started the season disastrously slow, and after 7 pointless races Gasly’s rating was decidedly mediocre. Steady improvements in the car made the Alpine a points contender, and from Monaco onwards he was the better Alpine driver overall. His edge only increased as the season progressed, and in the last 5 weekends he scored points every time he finished (including the sprint race).
Gasly’s season is seen as his best yet, and his rise of 5 places in the rankings from last year is the biggest change of anyone. He’s now had the measure of every teammate he’s faced except for Max Verstappen. The model is now quite forgiving of his struggles versus Max, given what the data it has on Albon and Pérez‘s subsequent performances against the Dutchman.
4) Carlos Sainz
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 106% | 4th | — (4th) | 5th (116%) |
Sainz began the season incredibly strongly, with 2 podiums followed by a win after missing a race in Saudi Arabia. At this point he was the 2nd highest rated driver by the model. His middle part of the season was more nuanced, with just 3 podiums in 14 weekends. This was partly due to Ferrari’s loss of competitiveness, but there were doubtless times where Leclerc was able to make the difference.
However, he saw a late season flourish which peaked with a win from pole in Mexico. Across the season as a whole Sainz never troubled Leclerc too closely in the standings, he was also never far away in terms of pace or points. In qualifying, he had far fewer poles (3 vs 1) and front row stars (6 vs 3), than Leclerc, but actually enjoyed a higher median qualifying position. This stat demonstrates why Sainz will be a massive asset to Williams next year. His raw pace may not be quite as strong as the absolute best, but his consistency and ability to gather points has regularly impressed.
A Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
3) Lando Norris
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 120% | 3rd | ↓1 (2nd) | 2nd (133%) |
Norris had a very good season overall. In terms of results his first Grand Prix wins and finishing 2nd in the championship are significant milestones. He also shrugged off a strong mid-season from Piastri to reassert his leadership within the team. Norris had a plethora of strong races this year, with possibly his best performance came at the final race. A decisive win from pole to seal the constructor’s title for his team.
However, there were some negatives too. Poor race starts and missed opportunities blunted his title charge, and he often (though not always) came off second best in various wheel-to-wheel duels with Verstappen. Whilst his weak starts were not as bad as some made out, and not all of the missed opportunities were his doing, there’s a definite niggling feeling that more could have been achieved this year had he and the team got everything together.
2) Charles Leclerc
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 124% | 2nd | ↑1 (2nd) | 4th (120%) |
The highlights of Leclerc’s seasons were surely the emotional wins at Monaco and Monza. Whilst his championship chances were eroded by the team’s mid-season dip in form, he was still performing at a very high level for almost the entire season.
Leclerc ended the season with 18 top 4 finishes in Grand Prix; more than any other driver. Baring a couple of off weekends midseason (Austria and Silverstone spring to mind) he was incredibly consistent. He also generally maintained a slight edge on teammate Sainz, other than a few stand out races for the Spanish driver.
S Tier: 2024 Driver Rankings
1) Max Verstappen
| RATING | RANKING | CHANGE FROM 2023 | QUALIFYING RANKING |
| 142% | 1st | N/A | 1st (139%) |
What more needs to be said about Verstappen? In 2023 he completely dominated, smashing several long-held records. This year his run to the title was much harder, but his performance was just as good. Max opened the season with 7 consecutive poles, which he translated to 5 wins, a 2nd and a mechanical DNF. From then on the car was rarely the absolute quickest, but he was almost always in the mix and did enough to prevent a serious title challenge emerging from a rival.
Of course his season was not inhumanly perfect, and once again he was at the centre of multiple controversies about driving standards. Max showed no hesitation in pushing the rulebook to its limit and was caught on the wrong side of the stewards on multiple occasions. Certainly a more pragmatic approach to racing would have been the better choice on some occasions (particularly in Mexico and Abu Dhabi). However, Max displayed an uncanny ability to stay in races and score solid points even after penalties. There were other occasions (such as in Austin) where he applied the steward’s interpretation of the rulebook perfectly to goad Norris into an illegal overtake.
The match-up against Pérez was, on paper, even more one-sided than previously. However the model rates his 2023 and 2024 seasons very similarly, with a slight nod to 2024. This means that this season is not only considered to be his strongest in F1, but it is the highest rated season in the history of F1. This gives Max his 7th season as the highest rated driver, placing him ahead of Fangio, Clark and Prost and behind only Alonso and Schumacher.
Summary of Results
Who Was The Best Qualifier, F1 2024?
All of the qualifying rankings and ratings are listed above in each driver’s summary. However, I think it’s worth while detailing these results together, to see how they compare.
The only big differences between the qualifying and race results are Russell, Hamilton and Bottas.
Russell jumps from 7th best racer to 3rd best qualifier, whilst Hamilton slumps from 10th best all the way down to 16th. Meanwhile, Bottas is considered to be the 10th fastest qualifier this year; significantly better than his ranking of 18th for race results.
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