Written after 2021 Azerbaijan GP
How is it possible to separate teams and drivers? Effectively, the drivers and given scores by comparing how they performed (points wise) relative to their mates, and then this effect is removed to leave the car effect remaining. As the general order of teams is well established at this point in the season, I thought I’d instead tackle this group by group.
Although Red Bull sit top of the constructors championship, Mercedes still have more poles, podiums and fastest laps. Red Bull haven’t secured a pole since the season opener, although they seem to be the more consistent team.
Before Baku, the model gave Mercedes had a slight edge. After Baku, it’s Red Bull. What is clear is that the current points difference between Bottas and Hamilton is much larger than the expected points gap between the two teams. This means that the constructors championship may well come down to who can get the best out of their secondary drivers. Right now, that’s Red Bull.
McLaren vs Ferrari
The battle for 3rd has been incredibly tight, with Ferrari unable to stretch out an advantage despite getting 2 pole positions in a row. It appears as though McLaren have been more consistent as a team, but with a lower peak performance than Ferrari. The model gives a small but significant edge to McLaren, and suggests that Ricciardo’s poor form has been holding the team back.
AlphaTauri vs Aston Martin vs Alpine
Almost all the stats are in AlphaTauri’s favour, and the model thinks they should have scored significantly more points by now when factoring out the effect of different drivers. As ever, there are fine margins in the midfield, and the final positions may well be dictated by how early the teams switch focus to 2022.
Alfa Romeo vs Williams vs Haas
Comparisons here are difficult due to the fact that Haas field 2 rookies, and the Williams pairing are also lacking data to compare with the wider grid. It may seem silly that Haas is potentially ranked as a better car than the Williams, but currently they are ahead in the championship. Although stat is in Alfa’s favour right now, one freak result could change the final standings.