Happy 2024 everybody! Similar to last year and previously, I’ve used the mathematical model to make predictions on the driver lineups for the 2024 F1 season. Last year the model got almost all of its predictions correct, and we’re hoping for the same this year too!
Whilst the grid is due for a major shakeup in 2025, we are stuck with the same driver lineups for 2024. This does take some of the intrigue out of the predictions, but it means that comparisons can be made with previous results and predictions too. Half of the difficulty this year was just figuring out what to call the VCARB and Kick Stake teams!
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Red Bull: Verstappen vs Pérez
Once again Verstappen is expected to have a significant edge on Pérez. The Mexican’s 2023 was disappointing, but it’s considered unlikely that the gulf between them will be so large in 2024.
It may be a surprise to see the prediction gap be smaller than that of 2023. This is because the model goes into the season assuming the car will be as competitive as the previous year. A dominant car typically brings drivers closer together in terms of % of points scored. (But further away in terms of absolute points difference). If the field closes in on Red Bull this year, as is likely, then the model would expect Verstappen’s % advantage over Pérez to increase further.
Mercedes: Russell vs Hamilton
In their final year as teammates, Mercedes are considered to have the closest match up on the grid. The raw pace of Russell and Hamilton was similar last year, although the former had difficulties stringing together successful full weekends. The large points gap between them in 2023 is unlikely to be repeated. However, Hamilton still goes into his final Mercedes season as the narrow favourite.
Ferrari: Leclerc vs Sainz
Another pairing in their final season together. The model has been consistent every year, with Leclerc yet again predicted to have a small but decisive edge. Sainz can feel hard done by to not have his Ferrari contract renewed, given he has held up well against Leclerc in their 3 seasons together so far.
McLaren
Piastri had a very strong debut season, but ultimately scored less than 1/3 of McLaren’s points. The model expects him to improve with experience, but still sees Norris as the favourite over a full campaign. It is always a little unpredictable how much new drivers improve over their first two years in the sport, meaning this predictions is one of the less certain ones.
Aston Martin: Alonso vs Stroll
Despite being well into his 40s, Alonso absolutely dominated an unimpressive Stroll last year. The model expects more of the same. However, a slight improvement in Stroll’s form relative to Alonso’s is considered the most likely outcome.
Alpine: Gasly vs Ocon
Last year the two drivers were virtually matched, with Ocon having the upper hand in the early season and Gasly coming back as the season progressed. Gasly is again predicted to outscore Ocon. However, the pairing are still considered to be relatively closely matched.
Williams: Albon vs Sargeant
The model obvious expects more of Sargeant now that he’s no longer a rookie. A repeat of the 2023 results would surely mean the end of his F1 career. As with Piastri, the exact amount of improvement going into the second season is unpredictable. Despite this, he’s unlikely to give Albon any major headaches.
Racing Bulls: Ricciardo vs Tsunoda
This is the largest mismatch between the previous year’s results and next year’s prediction that the model has ever produced. This is partly due to Ricciardo only competing in the second half of 2023 (and having that stint interrupted by injury to boot). However, the main reason is that the jury is still out on modern Ricciardo’s abilities. The model is basing its predictions on the average performance of a driver across their career, and few would consider current Ricciardo to be at his peak.
I’d personally expect the results to fall somewhere between these two extremes, whilst Red Bull would probably prefer a definitive answer to guide them on future driver choices.
Sauber: Bottas vs Zhou
Zhou has been generally competent but unspectacular in F1, and the model thinks he didn’t quite show the improvement expected in 2023. As such, Bottas is firm favourite to continue having the edge. However, as we approach the back of the grid the percentage predictions become much less precise. This is due to a freak result having a larger effect on the points scored, as well as a small change in car performance causing a notable change in the model’s predictions.
Haas: Hülkenberg vs Magnussen
After Magnussen staged an unlikely but successful comeback in 2022, Hülkenberg followed a similar story in 2023. As predicted last year, Nico was the higher scoring Haas driver, and the model sees no reason for this to change this year. As with Sauber, with percentages are quite volatile due to the low scores of the drivers last year.
Thanks for reading! As usual I’ll post a mid-season (and final season) review to see how accurate the predictions ended up.
| team | predicted 1st driver | predicted 2nd driver | Predicted difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull | Verstappen | Pérez | Large |
| Mercedes | Hamilton | Russell | Very Small |
| Ferrari | Leclerc | Sainz | Small |
| McLaren | Norris | Piastri | Moderate |
| Aston Martin | Alonso | Stroll | Large |
| Alpine | Gasly | Ocon | Small |
| Williams | Albon | Sargeant | Large |
| Racing Bulls | Ricciardo | Tsunoda | Small |
| Sauber | Bottas | Zhou | Moderate |
| Haas | Hülkenberg | Magnussen | Small |