Happy 2025 everybody! Similar to last year and previously, I’m using the mathematical model to make predictions on the driver lineups for the 2025 F1 season. Last year the model’s predictions were largely correct, and I’m hoping for even better this year too!
For teammates with 2 experienced drivers, I’ve produced graphs predicting the % of points each driver will score as normal. However, as we have so many rookies this year, I’ve also added graphs for them which show how impressive the model would consider their potential results.
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Experienced F1 Driver Predictions 2025
McLaren: Norris vs Piastri
Norris has finished ahead of Piastri twice now, and is predicted to do so again by a similar margin. However, Piastri was more decisive and even outright faster at times in 2024. A Piastri victory is by no means off the table, even if it’s not considered to be the most likely outcome by the model.
Ferrari: Leclerc vs Hamilton
This is the big one. Leclerc is currently the bookies favourite to come out ahead, and the model concurs with this assessment. It also thinks there will be a notable points gap between them come the season’s end.
However, it’s been known for some time that the cluster of Leclerc, Sainz, Norris and Piastri are rated higher by the model than most of its readers. This matchup (+ Sainz at Williams) offer an excellent assessment of this hypothesis. Either the model’s predictions will be validated by the results, or it will finally be able to make some corrections. Either way I’m excited to see what happens!
Red Bull: Verstappen vs Lawson
After Perez’s disastrous 2024 campaign, Red Bull are getting some fresh blood in with Lawson. Verstappen is of course the clear favourite in this match-up, but given Lawson’s lack of experience the percentage prediction is pretty tentative at this point. I have discussed Lawson further in the rookie section below.
Aston Martin: Alonso vs Stroll
Despite being well into his 40s, Alonso has absolutely dominated Stroll over the past couple of years. Unsurprisingly, a similar result is predicted for 2025, although the predicted gap will narrow a little if Aston can get on top of their car.
Williams: Sainz vs Albon
Albon is entering his 4th year at Williams, and has beaten every teammate thrown at him so far. However, he has not been properly tested against a known talent since his Red Bull partnership with Verstappen in 2020. That match up was rather one-sided, and not in Albon’s favour. Whilst the model predicts Albon to be closer to Sainz than he was to Verstappen, it still puts Sainz as very much the favourite in this line-up.
In fact, Sainz is (perhaps surprisingly) predicted to have the largest percentage of any non-rookie teammate matchup. Why is it so high? Firstly, there’s the fact that Sainz may be slightly overrated by the model, due to his previous association with both Leclerc and Norris. But perhaps more important is the fact the Williams was not a particularly competitive car last year, and less competitive cars are much more likely to have larger % differences. When the model places all drivers in dominant cars, Sainz’s level over Albon is still considered to be above average, but not particularly dramatic.
What Level Should A Rookie Be Aiming For?
So what kind of performance can we expect from our rookies this year? The general rule over the past half decade is that rookies have struggled to make an impact. However, I’ve previously talked about F1’s sudden embrace of rookie drivers, and why there will be no excuses for them in 2025.
As the model has nothing to go on for predicting results for rookies, I’ve instead provided some perspective for how well the model will rank a performance for each rookie. For this I have assumed that the rookie is a complete blank slate. (This is not strictly true for Lawson, Bearman and Doohan, who have already raced in F1.) The graphs below are of each rookie’s points vs their teammates. At the end of the season the results will correspond to a single coordinate on the graph. For now, there’s a range of potential outcomes for each rookie driver, which indicate how impressive the model will view their results.
The graphs contain 3 curves. A point below the lowest curve suggests the rookie is probably not at F1 standard. As they move higher up their standard improves, and if they’re above the highest curve the model thinks their level is GOAT worthy for a rookie driver.
The red dot indicates the position of the previous teammate of the driver the rookie is being compared to. (For Mercedes, it indicates Hamilton’s 2024 position relative to Russell.) Finally, the thin blue straight line just indicates equal points between drivers and can be used as a reference.
| Antonelli points if russel scores 300 | CONCLUSION |
|---|---|
| <130 | Below F1 level |
| 130 – 265 | Midfielder |
| 265-380 | Top Line F1 Driver |
| 380+ | Potential GOAT |
One thing to note is that these assessments do not account for any crashes or mechanical issues across the season, so it’s possible some adjustments will be required for the actual results..
Red Bull: Verstappen vs Lawson
Firstly, in all scenarios Verstappen is predicted to outscore Lawson. (All curves are below the blue line.) Secondly, we can see that Perez’s 2024 season is seen as about the minimum F1 standard… for a rookie driver. He was rated the worst driver of last year, and given this it’s no surprise that he was replaced.
Given the likely points range of Red Bull next year, the graph suggests that Lawson scoring half of Verstappen’s points would be a solid return, with 75% of Verstappen’s points corresponding to a strong season.
Mercedes: Russell vs Antonelli
As with Red Bull, Mercedes are unlikely to expect Antonelli to match their lead driver on points in 2025. However, if he can get close it would indicate some very positive things for the future.
Alpine: Gasly vs Doohan
Doohan appears to be under pressure before the season has even started. Gasly is also considered to be a highly competitive teammate that Doohan is unlikely to match. Hopefully Alpine will take this into account when assessing his performance across the year.
Haas: Ocon vs Bearman
Bearman’s impressive cameo’s in 2024 will have undoubtedly raised expectations. Indeed, using just the data from those 3 races (and the expected improvement as experience in gained in 2025) he’s actually predicted to outscore Ocon (55%-45%). However, 3 races is not enough to make a meaningful assessment from the model. Just matching (or almost matching) Ocon over the season would be a great sign of things to come from him.
Racing Bulls: Tsunoda vs Hadjar
Both Ricciardo and Lawson’s 2024 performances were considered to be good enough for F1, although neither of them were considered especially impressive. Hadjar will be expecting to at least match their performance relative to Tsunoda.
Eagle eyed readers may have noticed the remarkable similarity between the graphs for Hadjar and Bearman above. This is caused by the model currently rating Ocon and Tsunoda near identically. This also means that matching (or nearly matching) Tsunoda is a realistic aim.
Sauber: Hülkenberg vs Borteloto
Magnussen’s rating vs Hulkenberg in 2024 was not considered particularly impressive by the model. (The red point is just above the minimum F1 standard.) Bortoleto will surely be expected to at least match this level. However, of all the rookie drivers, the model thinks that Bortoleto probably has the weakest teammate (although Hulkenberg is still considered more than capable). As such, Borteloto matching his teammate would be considered impressive, but slightly less so than the same feat by other rookie drivers.
Thanks for reading! Looking forward to the end of the year to see how everything sorted itself out.
F1 Analysis 