Norris and McLaren took both pole and victory in Australia. Here I look at how good the first race weekend is at predicting the drivers and constructor’s champions. I have also compared the opening race to the 9th race (approximately mid-season) and final race of the year, to see if the first race is a better or a worse indicator of the year as a whole. All data is since the start of 1994, which I have arbitrarily chosen as much older seasons are less representative of modern F1.
Drivers
How well does the eventual world champion qualify for the 1st race?
Nearly two-thirds of the time, the driver who claims pole goes on to win the championship. Whilst this might not be shocking, it’s actually more representative than other races. At the mid-point and final races of the season, there is less than a 50% chance of the world champion claiming pole. However, the champion will generally remain competitive throughout the season, with at least a 90% chance of qualifying in the top 4 at any race.
Note that from 1994-today, many different qualifying formats existed, and ocassionally qualifying has featured cars with differing fuel loads and track conditions. With the exception of 2005 (which is discussed here), there’s no obvious indication that these different formats significantly change the percentages.
How well does the pole sitter at the first race perform in the rest of the season?
Another way to look at the data is to see where the pole sitter ends up in the championship standings. This may actually be more useful, as we obviously don’t know right now where Norris will finish in the 2025 championship.
Only 3 times has the pole sitter not finished the season in the top 2 in the standings (1994, 2005 and 2012). Out of those, 1994 is explained by Senna’s untimely death. 2005 featured the a topsy-turvy grid due to the qualifying conditions and unusual format, which forced Alonso to set a time on a wet track whilst others got a dry run. 2012 meanwhile, was an unusually competitive season, particularly in the first half. Overall, the first race is again significantly more representative of the season as a whole than future races.
How often does a win at the first race predict the driver’s champion?
What about the races themselves? Race finishes for the opening race of the year look similar to that of qualifying: in most cases where the world champion finishes, they win. Another interesting conclusion is that the championship winner has never reached the chequered flag outside the top 4. Note I have discounted DNFs in the statistics here, with the 4% being accounted by Verstappen’s late retirement in the opening race of 2022. There were three other times the world champion did not finish the opening race (1997, 1999 and 2014). On all three occasions the championship winner started from pole, and in all occasions they would have been the likely winner had they made it to the end. The ifs and buts are discussed here.
How well does the winner of the first race perform in the rest of the season?
Finally for drivers, let’s see what winning the first race tells you about a driver’s final championship standings.
Although starting the season with a win is of course ideal, it is not as conclusive as one might think. A surprising 13% of the time, the race winner does not even feature in the top 4 at the end of the year. Although none of those were in the hybrid era, it is also notable that there were recently 6 years in a row (2017-2022) were the winner of the opener didn’t win the championship. Pole position is therefore a better indicator of a strong season ahead than a race win. This is probably due to the added variability that a race can dish up compared to qualifying.
What about Norris getting both pole and the win?
In the past 31 seasons, there’s only been 4 occasions where the eventual world champion gets neither pole or a win at the opening race. However, this has happened twice in the past 5 seasons (2020 and 2022). Of course, Norris got both in Australia. Of the 12 times since 1994 a driver has got both pole and a win (like Norris), they’ve gone on to win the championship 9 times (75%).
Constructors
How well does the eventual constructor’s champion qualify for the 1st race?
Let’s look at the constructor’s title results. In all cases I am considering the best placed car. The patterns are similar to that of drivers, but in general the trends are more apparent. This is to be expected given that there are only half as many teams as drivers.
Over 70% of pole sitting teams in the first race of the year go on to win the constructor’s. One exception to this general rule is McLaren last year, where their best car last year was only 7th. This feeds into a general trend of the 1st race being less important over time. There are several potential reasons for this, including the longer race season and the fact that no team can consistently get on top of the current regulations.
Like with other figures, this falls significantly for the mid-season race, but then interestingly returns to 75% again for the final race of the year. It’s also much higher in the final race than for the driver’s champion. This is mostly explained by the teammate of the world champion exceeding expectations at the end of the season. This is possibly due to the driver’s champion not always be performing to the maximum in the final race. This may either be because the championship is already sewn up (meaning their performance is largely irrelevant) or because it’s the high pressure affair of a championship decider.
How well does the pole sitter’s team perform in the rest of the season?
Again, the first race is a very strong indicator of a good season, with subsequent races being less so. In fact, only twice since 1994 has the team on pole not finished in the top two in the constructor’s championship. These were 2012 and 2024.
How often does a win at the first race predict the constructor’s champion?
Again we see a dip in the 9th race of the season. A mixture of reasons including poor form, unreliability and wet races are to blame for this. Note that wet races are not necessarily distributed randomly throughout the year, and are (historically!) more likely to occur in the middle of the year (typically in Europe) than at the first race (typically Australia/Bahrain).
How well does the winner’s car perform in the rest of the season?
This one seems pretty consistent across the season. The ratios are also pretty expected given the other data we have looked at. Again, pole position is a better predictor for the season ahead, but any car that claims a victory has to be at least semi-decent.
Conclusions
There’s a lot of data here, so I’ve summarised the key conclusions below:
- The opening race is generally a better predictor of who will win the championship than other races throughout the season.
- Roughly 2/3rds of the time the pole sitter at the first race will win the drivers championship. Over 90% of the time the pole sitter will finish in the top 2 at the end of the season. The percentages are a little lower for race results.
- 3/4s of the time a driver that gets both the pole and the win in the season opener will win the championship.
- The car on pole at round 1 typically wins the constructor’s. Only twice has the team on pole at the first race not finished in the top 2 of the constructor’s championship.
- However, 2024 was a big exception. McLaren secured the constructor’s title last year after finishing just 6th and 8th in the season opener. Red Bull failed to finish in the top 2 despite their initial pole.
- No driver has reached the chequered flag below 4th in the first race and gone on to win the championship.
- Whilst champions in recent years seem less likely to win the opening race than in the past, they are still likely to get pole position.
See why the eventual world champions were unable to start things off with a victory here.
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